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Canada

Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi


MP elect: Sophie Chatel (LPC)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi


Liberal Sophie Chatel*
Conservative Brian Nolan
NDP Gilbert Whiteduck
Green Claude Bertrand
Bloc Quebecois Suzanne Proulx
PPC Todd Hoffman

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 54% ± 5% LPC 28% ± 5% CPC 10% ± 3% BQ 5% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 54.5% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% BQ Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC 54% ± 5% CPC 28% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 2% BQ 10% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP BQ May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 31% LPC 30% BQ 19% NDP 12% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 31% LPC 30% BQ 18% NDP 12% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 31% LPC 30% BQ 18% NDP 12% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 32% CPC 30% BQ 18% NDP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 36% CPC 28% BQ 16% NDP 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 38% CPC 28% BQ 16% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 40% CPC 28% BQ 15% NDP 9% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 43% CPC 26% BQ 14% NDP 9% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 44% CPC 27% BQ 14% NDP 9% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 46% CPC 26% BQ 13% NDP 8% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 49% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 12% NDP 7% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 48% CPC 25% BQ 13% NDP 7% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 48% CPC 24% BQ 13% NDP 7% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 51% CPC 23% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 51% CPC 23% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 51% CPC 24% BQ 12% NDP 6% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 52% CPC 24% BQ 12% NDP 5% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 52% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 53% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 53% CPC 24% BQ 11% NDP 5% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 54% CPC 24% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 58% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 57% CPC 23% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 57% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 56% CPC 24% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 56% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 54% CPC 26% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 55% CPC 25% BQ 9% NDP 5% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 54% CPC 28% BQ 10% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 36% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 42% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 47% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 65% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 92% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 97% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 54% ± 5% 49.2% 43.9% 54.5% CPC 28% ± 5% 17.7% 21.4% 27.6% BQ 10% ± 3% 14.5% 15.2% 10.4% NDP 5% ± 2% 10.8% 11.3% 5.0% GPC 1% ± 1% 6.2% 2.9% 1.3% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.2% 4.5% 1.2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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